State of the market
While the struggle over open access played out on national and international stages, librarians, vendors, and publishers continued to trade within a market dominated by all things electronic. List prices became a bit scarcer as price-by-negotiation deepened its hold on the market, brokered by a growing number of salespeople who deal directly with customers on behalf of the larger publishers. Discounts from the major publishers for online-only seem to have stabilized at around 5% on average, while some of the largest publishers offer no discount at all. Journal prices still have the power to shock. In January, the editor of Journal of Economic Studies, an Emerald Press title, resigned when he realized that his journal's $9,859 sticker price was wholly out of line both with the market and with his own sensibilities. The title is not indexed in Social Sciences Citation Index, yet it cost around three times as much as the next most expensive journal in the field. The energy for dealing with a broken market, however, seems to be shifting toward institutional repositories and OA publishing models and away from the futile hope that high-priced publishers will come to their senses and reduce journal prices. Google is insinuating itself deeper into the business side of the journals market through AdSense, a service that matches ads to the keywords on an e-journal page. Since the publisher doesn't choose the ads, the appearance of influence on journal or editorial content by an advertiser is avoided altogether. When the user clicks through, both Google and the journal profit. British Medical Journal, Journal of Clinical Investigation, and Journal of Medical Internet Research use AdSense.Books upstage journals
Book digitization projects were all the buzz in 2005, and, for the first time in years, books upstaged the serials crisis in chatter around library water coolers. Google Library got the most press, because of its prestigious partners and because its presumptive strategy of digitizing works in and out of copyright made some publishers livid. October saw the launch of Open Library, a book digitizing project managed by the Open Content Alliance (OCA) and subsidized by Google rivals Yahoo and Microsoft. It is similar in scale to Google's, but more circumspect in its approach to copyrighted works—it will scan only with permission from the copyright holder. [For more on the OCA project, see Spring 2006 netConnect, with this issue.] Book scanning projects may help prepare the market for journal publishers to begin integrating digitized books and journals into one package.Feeding the OPAC
Some time this summer, the TOCRoSS project will release open source software that will be capable of delivering an RSS service to push publisher and e-journal table of contents data directly into library catalogs, allowing users to find journal articles just like they find books. The Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) of the UK is developing the service with publisher Emerald and library supplier Talis.Bundles without borders
Bundles and big deals remained a staple despite protestations by librarians who see them as the Trojan horse of collection development. Librarians lament the lack of choice, loss of fluidity in materials expenditures, and nondisclosure agreements that prevent libraries and consortia from comparing purchase prices. Joined by economists and lawyers, concerned librarians have a new strategy to try to break the choke hold big publishers have on the market. They are now speaking in terms of anticompetitive behaviors rather than antitrust, and several offices of state attorneys general are interested in the claims. For the moment, nonetheless, the bundle is king. The largest publishers have already bundled their own content, and the next tier of publishers is trying to do the same. Smaller commercial, society, and foreign publishers want to shelter their titles with a publisher that can increase exposure and decrease vulnerability to cancellations. Some of the large houses are fostering these alliances. Springer, for example, has added scientific journals from Eastern and Central European, Russian, and Chinese publishing firms. Add to these new coalitions the steady rise in sales of legacy content from publisher digitization projects, and we can safely predict the number and size of bundles will increase.Digital insurance
Concern over archiving of digital content returned to the spotlight last year after a period of relative dormancy while libraries concentrated on the shift to online. Two major archival initiatives are in the works. Portico, developed by JSTOR and its partners, will be rolled out this summer when it begins loading archives directly from scholarly publishers. Controlled LOCKSS, or CLOCKSS, is in development by a coalition of librarians, publishers, and learned societies and is entering a two-year pilot phase. Both programs will provide member libraries with access to subscribed content in the event of a publisher failure or another trigger event that interrupts service.Good, bad, and medium
Distinguished economists Ted Bergstrom and Preston McAfee sent an open letter to university presidents and provosts last fall suggesting, among other things, that universities should bill publishers for faculty service if the cost of a journal exceeds a certain reasonable level (see “End Free Ride for Costly Journals,” LJ 12/05). To identify the worst offenders, Bergstrom and McAfee created a web site that charts the cost of around 5000 journals, using price per article and price per citation to rank each journal as good value, medium value, or bad value (www.journalprices.com). The details have been debated, but one conclusion is unavoidable: an extremely high percentage of journals from the six largest STM publishers fall into the bad value category (74% on average), while an extremely low percentage of titles from the nonprofits are rated as bad (14%). Blackwell and Elsevier had the lowest percentages of bad titles (55% and 68%, respectively), while Sage, Springer, Taylor & Francis, and Wiley all had percentages in the mid-eighties. The data challenge librarians and scholars to reconcile price to value before renewing a journal or donating time and expertise to help a journal succeed.OA makes an impact
As of mid-February, the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) contained 2,044 peer-reviewed OA journals—about 600 more than this time last year. Some of them are demonstrating the power of open access by accruing impressive impact factors as young journals. In its second year of publication, PLoS Biology had an impact factor of 13.9, making it the highest ranked general biology journal in the world, and five OA journals from BioMed Central ranked in the top five journals in their specialties. These successes are backed by research showing that OA articles generate between 25% and 250% more citations than non-OA articles in the same journal from the same year. The oft-quoted report can be found at eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/11688. OA journals rely on advertising and grants/sponsorships to support themselves. Less than half charge author-side fees, a surprising finding in a report on open access from the Association of Learned and Professional Society Publishers (ALPSP). In fact, the research found that subscription-based journals were far more likely to charge author fees than open access journals. According to the same report, however, a sobering 40% of OA journals in the study are not yet in the black.Scholars get smarter
The academy is slowly embracing open access, both in principle and in practice. A Center for Information Behaviour and the Evaluation of Research (CIBER) study released in October showed a significant increase in the number of scholars who know about OA. The study found that 29% of researchers surveyed had published in an open access journal, a jump of 18% over the year before. In a separate report from Key Perspectives in May, Alma Swan and Sheridan Brown indicated that 81% of authors surveyed would willingly archive their research in an OA repository if their funding agency or university mandated it. Only five research institutions currently mandate faculty to provide open access to their published scholarly output—none are in the United States.Funders get wiser
Ninety-three percent of scholarly publishers allow the posting of pre- or postprints of peer-reviewed articles on the author's web site or in an institutional repository, but so far only a small percentage of authors actually do it. For that reason, a growing number of large research foundations require open access to peer-reviewed journal articles resulting from funded research, usually between six and 12 months after publication. Publishers, which used to consider self-archiving by authors a nonstarter, now fear that the current self-archiving trickle will become a torrent; some are lengthening embargoes on self-archiving (longer delays before an author can post the article on the web). Scholars are caught in the middle between the funders and the publishers, but there is growing evidence that the funders can and will force their researchers to comply with mandates if they want continued funding.Publishers get bolder
Four of the large STM publishers now offer authors an open access option for all or some of their journal titles: Springer (Open Choice, 1200 journals), Blackwell (Online Open, 80 journals), Oxford (Oxford Open, 42 journals), and American Institute of Physics (Author Select, three journals). If the author pays a fee up-front (typically using grant funds), the article is put on the web free to all as soon as it is published. Publishers have also been exploring advertising and sponsorships to underwrite the cost of making the research articles in a journal free. Perhaps there is a role here for products like Google's AdSense.OA goes to DC
Back in 2004, Congress asked the NIH to develop a policy to give taxpayers access to medical research funded by the NIH and reported in peer-reviewed journals. The plan directed authors to archive their articles with PubMed Central, NIH's OA repository, within six months of publication. Under intense pressure from publishers, NIH posted a much weaker policy early in 2005. By the fall, less than 4% of eligible papers had been deposited, and the policy was widely recognized as a failure. At this writing, the report and recommendations to strengthen the policy were before a Congressional appropriations committee for review. In yet another response to the NIH initiative, 57 societal publishers have offered to provide the NIH with links from PubMed Central into all NIH-funded articles in their journals at no charge. The offer appears to be generous and compelling. The difficulty is that it would prevent the NIH from addressing two other directives from Congress—permanent preservation on an NIH site and a common database for tracking and searching all NIH research. Congress may not wait for full cooperation from the NIH. Senators Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and Thad Cochran (R-MS) introduced the CURES Act in December 2005. If passed, it will mandate that virtually all published medical research sponsored by the government would become open access within six months of publication. An even more far-reaching bill is expected to be introduced this spring. Either of these bills would override the existing NIH policy and assert the government's entitlement to use the content it funds, making publisher objections moot.OA abroad
The British spent the fall wrangling over a proposal from the Research Councils of the UK (RCUK) that would encourage authors who receive grants to place peer-reviewed findings in a system of open access repositories around the country. RCUK distributes £3.5 billion of government money to support medical research, generating about 130,000 articles a year. Delay in implementing the new policy is apparently owing to strong opposition from a handful of society and STM publishers. The hope is that the RCUK will achieve what Parliament was too timid to do in 2004, likely out of fear of offending these same publishers, which have headquarters in their districts.What to expect in 2007
Academic libraries saw price increases just under 8% overall in 2006. Non-U.S. titles rose just over 8%, while U.S. titles rose just over 7%. Currency was not a big factor as most major STM publishers now price in U.S. dollars and the dollar was doing well against both the Euro and the pound when 2006 prices were set. For non-U.S. publishers that price in native currency, U.S. customers would have seen slightly more variance but only in the range of plus or minus a percent or two. For the second year in a row, price hikes were slightly lower than predicted. Barring a major upheaval in the world economy, it is probably reasonable to assume that increases for 2007 will remain in the range of 7%–9%.DISCIPLINE | AVERAGE PRICE PER TITLE |
Chemistry | $3,254 |
Physics | 2,850 |
Engineering | 1,756 |
Astronomy | 1,724 |
Technology | 1,560 |
Biology | 1,548 |
Geology | 1,323 |
Food Science | 1,292 |
Math & Computer Science | $1,278 |
Zoology | 1,259 |
Botany | 1,238 |
Health Sciences | 1,132 |
General Science | 1,098 |
Geography | 984 |
Agriculture | 890 |
SOURCE: LJ PERIODICALS PRICE SURVEY 2006 |
SUBJECT | AVERAGE NO. OF TITLES 2002–2006 | AVERAGE COST PER TITLE 2002 | AVERAGE COST PER TITLE 2003 | % OF CHANGE '02–'03 | AVERAGE COST PER TITLE 2004 | % OF CHANGE '03–'04 | AVERAGE COST PER TITLE 2005 | % OF CHANGE '04–'05 | AVERAGE COST PER TITLE 2006 | % OF CHANGE '05–'06 | % OF CHANGE '02–'06 |
Agriculture | 189 | $631 | $686 | 9 | $777 | 13 | $834 | 7 | $890 | 7 | 41 |
Anthropology | 53 | 300 | 342 | 14 | 372 | 9 | 397 | 7 | 416 | 5 | 39 |
Art & Architecture | 65 | 134 | 144 | 7 | 160 | 12 | 172 | 7 | 185 | 8 | 38 |
Astronomy | 24 | 1,256 | 1,353 | 8 | 1,500 | 11 | 1,577 | 5 | 1,724 | 9 | 37 |
Biology | 265 | 1,089 | 1,206 | 11 | 1,316 | 9 | 1,427 | 8 | 1,548 | 8 | 42 |
Botany | 69 | 880 | 939 | 7 | 1,036 | 10 | 1,134 | 10 | 1,238 | 9 | 41 |
Business & Economics | 328 | 527 | 582 | 11 | 643 | 10 | 699 | 9 | 746 | 7 | 42 |
Chemistry | 238 | 2,432 | 2,596 | 7 | 2,845 | 10 | 3,012 | 6 | 3,254 | 8 | 34 |
Education | 109 | 300 | 328 | 9 | 366 | 12 | 405 | 11 | 442 | 9 | 47 |
Engineering | 345 | 1,305 | 1,412 | 8 | 1,523 | 8 | 1,648 | 8 | 1,756 | 7 | 35 |
Food Science | 18 | 897 | 969 | 8 | 1,085 | 12 | 1,188 | 9 | 1,292 | 9 | 44 |
General Science | 72 | 810 | 886 | 9 | 954 | 8 | 1,013 | 6 | 1,098 | 8 | 36 |
General Works | 74 | 181 | 197 | 9 | 217 | 10 | 232 | 7 | 241 | 4 | 34 |
Geography | 68 | 746 | 819 | 10 | 882 | 8 | 937 | 6 | 984 | 5 | 32 |
Geology | 99 | 1,012 | 1,081 | 7 | 1,171 | 8 | 1,260 | 8 | 1,323 | 5 | 31 |
Health Sciences | 1,539 | 808 | 881 | 9 | 964 | 10 | 1,046 | 8 | 1,132 | 8 | 40 |
History | 220 | 132 | 152 | 15 | 171 | 12 | 189 | 11 | 201 | 6 | 52 |
Language & Literature | 319 | 120 | 135 | 12 | 153 | 14 | 166 | 8 | 176 | 6 | 46 |
Law | 79 | 159 | 174 | 10 | 192 | 10 | 200 | 5 | 225 | 12 | 42 |
Library & Information Science | 51 | 286 | 316 | 10 | 350 | 11 | 390 | 11 | 437 | 12 | 53 |
Math & Computer Science | 210 | 981 | 1,047 | 7 | 1,134 | 8 | 1,205 | 6 | 1,278 | 6 | 30 |
Military & Naval Science | 11 | 346 | 400 | 16 | 432 | 8 | 489 | 13 | 538 | 10 | 56 |
Music | 44 | 96 | 105 | 9 | 110 | 5 | 127 | 16 | 130 | 2 | 35 |
Philosophy & Religion | 141 | 156 | 174 | 12 | 195 | 12 | 211 | 8 | 226 | 7 | 45 |
Physics | 253 | 2,178 | 2,333 | 7 | 2,538 | 9 | 2,695 | 6 | 2,850 | 6 | 31 |
Political Science | 63 | 288 | 321 | 11 | 367 | 14 | 399 | 9 | 437 | 9 | 52 |
Psychology | 160 | 358 | 388 | 8 | 437 | 13 | 471 | 8 | 516 | 10 | 44 |
Recreation | 18 | 146 | 156 | 7 | 169 | 8 | 195 | 16 | 206 | 6 | 41 |
Sociology | 314 | 332 | 365 | 10 | 412 | 13 | 452 | 10 | 491 | 9 | 48 |
Technology | 181 | 1,151 | 1,241 | 8 | 1,360 | 10 | 1,464 | 8 | 1,560 | 7 | 35 |
Zoology | 135 | 973 | 1,033 | 6 | 1,091 | 6 | 1,161 | 6 | 1,259 | 8 | 29 |
SOURCE: LJ PERIODICALS PRICE SURVEY 2006 |
COUNTRY | NO. OF ISI TITLES | AVG. PRICE PER TITLE |
Russia | 57 | $2,696 |
Netherlands | 541 | 2,659 |
Ireland | 38 | 2,563 |
Austria | 25 | 1,646 |
Singapore | 18 | 1,445 |
Germany | 387 | 1,383 |
Hungary | 7 | 1,306 |
England | 1,665 | 1,279 |
Switzerland | 93 | 1,240 |
New Zealand | 24 | 959 |
China | 17 | 762 |
United States | 2,443 | 713 |
Sweden | 7 | 406 |
Australia | 45 | 377 |
France | 111 | $368 |
Spain | 15 | 358 |
Japan | 79 | 357 |
Israel | 13 | 315 |
Czech Republic | 15 | 296 |
Slovakia | 6 | 294 |
Canada | 111 | 244 |
Scotland | 12 | 231 |
Norway | 11 | 225 |
Italy | 50 | 195 |
South Africa | 11 | 153 |
Korea (South) | 8 | 146 |
India | 7 | 134 |
Chile | 6 | 133 |
AVERAGE COST OF AN ISI TITLE: $1,104 | ||
SOURCE: LJ PERIODICALS PRICE SURVEY 2006 |
SUBJECT | AVERAGE NO. OF TITLES 2002–2006 | AVERAGE COST 2002 | AVERAGE COST 2003 | % OF CHANGE '02–'03 | AVERAGE COST 2004 | % OF CHANGE '03–'04 | AVERAGE COST 2005 | % OF CHANGE '04–'05 | AVERAGE COST 2006 | % OF CHANGE '05–'06 | % OF CHANGE '02–'06 |
NORTH AMERICA | |||||||||||
United States | 2,427 | $519 | $563 | 8 | $612 | 9 | $659 | 8 | $713 | 8 | 37 |
Canada | 109 | 183 | 192 | 5 | 212 | 10 | 227 | 7 | 244 | 8 | 33 |
Other | 8 | 100 | 102 | 1 | 112 | 10 | 120 | 7 | 107 | -11 | 7 |
Average for all North America | 2,545 | 504 | 545 | 8 | 593 | 9 | 639 | 8 | 691 | 8 | 37 |
EUROPE | |||||||||||
France * | 104 | 263 | 309 | 18 | 375 | 21 | 383 | 2 | 368 | -4 | 40 |
Germany * | 363 | 997 | 1,095 | 10 | 1,281 | 17 | 1,380 | 8 | 1,383 | 0 | 39 |
Ireland * | 38 | 1,884 | 2,073 | 10 | 2,218 | 7 | 2,420 | 9 | 2,563 | 6 | 36 |
Italy * | 49 | 136 | 144 | 6 | 176 | 22 | 197 | 12 | 195 | -1 | 43 |
The Netherlands * | 543 | 2,015 | 2,177 | 8 | 2,350 | 8 | 2,495 | 6 | 2,659 | 7 | 32 |
Switzerland | 90 | 831 | 862 | 4 | 981 | 14 | 1,092 | 11 | 1,240 | 14 | 49 |
United Kingdom | 1,630 | 885 | 972 | 10 | 1,078 | 11 | 1,172 | 9 | 1,267 | 8 | 43 |
Other | 165 | 1,046 | 1,130 | 8 | 1,256 | 11 | 1,204 | -4 | 1,334 | 11 | 28 |
Average for all Europe | 2,981 | 1,100 | 1,194 | 8 | 1,318 | 10 | 1,403 | 6 | 1,495 | 7 | 36 |
ASIA | |||||||||||
Japan | 79 | 306 | 311 | 1 | 319 | 3 | 343 | 8 | 357 | 4 | 16 |
Other | 74 | 690 | 766 | 11 | 773 | 1 | 814 | 5 | 874 | 7 | 27 |
Average for all Asia | 153 | 489 | 526 | 8 | 536 | 2 | 579 | 8 | 617 | 7 | 26 |
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND | 67 | 374 | 436 | 17 | 488 | 12 | 531 | 9 | 580 | 9 | 55 |
SOUTH AMERICA | 18 | 80 | 93 | 17 | 103 | 10 | 105 | 3 | 107 | 1 | 33 |
AFRICA | 10 | 92 | 122 | 33 | 128 | 5 | 137 | 7 | 153 | 11 | 66 |
* Included in European Monetary Union SOURCE: LJ PERIODICALS PRICE SURVEY 2006 |
SUBJECT | AVERAGE NO. OF TITLES 2002–2006 | AVERAGE COST PER TITLE 2002 | AVERAGE COST PER TITLE 2003 | % OF CHANGE '02–'03 | AVERAGE COST PER TITLE 2004 | % OF CHANGE '03–'04 | AVERAGE COST PER TITLE 2005 | % OF CHANGE '04–'05 | AVERAGE COST PER TITLE 2006 | % OF CHANGE '05–'06 | % OF CHANGE '02–'06 |
ARTS AND HUMANITIES CITATION INDEX | |||||||||||
U.S. | 416 | $89 | $95 | 6.7 | $103 | 8.4 | $110 | 6.8 | $116 | 5.5 | 30.3 |
NON–U.S. | 603 | 156 | 178 | 14.1 | 205 | 15.2 | 220 | 7.3 | 230 | 4.5 | 47.4 |
SOCIAL SCIENCES CITATION INDEX | |||||||||||
U.S. | 895 | 273 | 298 | 9.2 | 327 | 9.7 | 355 | 8.6 | 385 | 8.5 | 41.0 |
NON–U.S. | 877 | 491 | 542 | 10.4 | 607 | 12.0 | 663 | 9.2 | 716 | 8.0 | 45.8 |
SCIENCE CITATION INDEX | |||||||||||
U.S. | 1,386 | 807 | 871 | 7.9 | 942 | 8.2 | 1,013 | 7.5 | 1,093 | 7.9 | 35.4 |
NON–U.S. | 2,301 | 1,392 | 1,497 | 7.5 | 1,633 | 9.1 | 1,745 | 6.9 | 1,866 | 6.9 | 34.1 |
SOURCE: LJ PERIODICALS PRICE SURVEY 2006 |
NO. OF TITLES | % OF LIST | 2006 COST | % OF COST | PROJECTED % OF INCREASE | PROJECTED 2007 COST | OF COST | PROJECTED OVERALL % INCREASE | |
ARTS AND HUMANITIES CITATION INDEX | ||||||||
U.S. | 400 | 44.3 | $46,545 | 28.7 | 7.0 | $49,803 | 28.5 | 7.7 |
NON–U.S. | 502 | 55.7 | 115,680 | 71.3 | 8.0 | 124,934 | 71.5 | |
SOCIAL SCIENCES CITATION INDEX | ||||||||
U.S. | 844 | 49.6 | 325,191 | 34.7 | 8.5 | 352,832 | 34.7 | 8.5 |
NON–U.S. | 856 | 50.4 | 612,949 | 65.3 | 8.5 | 665,050 | 65.3 | |
SCIENCE CITATION INDEX | ||||||||
U.S. | 1,302 | 37.0 | 1,423,531 | 25.6 | 8.0 | 1,537,413 | 25.7 | 7.6 |
NON–U.S. | 2,220 | 63.0 | 4,142,969 | 74.4 | 7.5 | 4,453,692 | 74.3 | |
PROJECTED OVERALL INCREASE FOR ALL ISI TITLES: 7.8% | ||||||||
SOURCE: LJ PERIODICALS PRICE SURVEY 2006 |
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